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STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND MONEY SUPPLY ON NIGERIAN GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
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Table of contents
CHAPTER ONE
1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY 1
1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 3
1.3 AIM AND OBJECTIVES 5
1.4 SIGNIFICANT OF THE STUDY 5
1.5 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY 5
1.6 DATA REQUIRED AND SOURCES 6
1.7 DEFINITION OF THE TERMS 6
CHAPTER TWO
2.1 EMPIRICAL LITERATURE 8
CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 ESTIMATION PROCEDURE 11
3.2 REGRESSION ANALYSIS 11
3.3 APPLICATION OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS 12
3.4 GOALS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS 13
3.5 STEPS IN REGRESSION ANALYSIS 13
3.6 SOURCES OF ERROR IN REGRESSION ANALYSIS 14
3.7 SCATTER DIAGRAM 14
3.8 STATISTICAL MODEL 14
3.9 MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODEL 16
3.10 ESTIMATION OF PARAMETER 17
3.11 DECOMPOSITION OF SUM OF SQUARES 17
3.12 COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION 21
3.13 CORRELATION ANALYSIS 22
3.14 HYPOTHESIS TESTING FOR INDIVIDUAL PARAMETER 23
3.15 HYPOTHESIS TESTING FOR SIGNIFICANCE OF REGRESSION
PARAMETERS USING F-REGRESSION 25
3.16 CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR TRUE INDIVIDUAL PARAMETER 26
3.17 MODEL SPECIFICATION 27
3.18 METHOD OF EVALUATION 28
3.19 DECISION RULE 28
CHAPTER FOUR: PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF RESULT
4.1 PRESENTATION OF RESULTS 30
4.2 ANALYSIS OF RESULTS BASED ON ECONOMIC CRITERIA 31
4.3 ANALYSIS BASED ON STATISTICAL CRITERIA 31
CHAPTER FIVE
5.1 SUMMARY 35
5.2 CONCLUSION 36
5.3 POLICY RECOMMENDATION 36
REFERENCES 38
APPENDICES 40
Abstract
The study examined the impact of money supply and unemployment on economic growth in Nigeria. In the model specified, real gross domestic product (real GDP) is the regress while the unemployment rate, broad money supply and narrow money supply are the regressors. Data was collected from NBS, CBN and ILO statistical bulletin for the period 1985-2017. The statistical techniques used for the analysis is the ordinary least square, with the aid of Eview 8.0 software package.
The result indicates that the expansionary credit being supplied in Nigeria within the period under review failed to influence the real gross domestic product, also the result of unemployment rate indicate that the rate of unemployment within the period under review influence the real gross domestic product. The narrow money supply being one of the significant regressor and one of the target variable of monetary policy. It has been identified that the major problem militating against the poor performance of monetary policy instruments in influencing real GDP in Nigeria is time-laging involved which now makes any policy employed by the government to take many variables to achieve its full effect.
In effect to this, the effectiveness of influencing real GDP in Nigeria maybe promoted by emphasizing on the unemployment rate instead of on monetary target variables due to the fact the unemployment rate is statistically significant.
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