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STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND MONEY SUPPLY ON NIGERIAN GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

Table of contents

 

CHAPTER ONE 

1.1       BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY                                                                           1 

1.2       STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM                                                                          3 

1.3       AIM AND OBJECTIVES                                                                                          5 

1.4       SIGNIFICANT OF THE STUDY                                                                              5 

1.5       LIMITATION OF THE STUDY                                                                               5 

1.6       DATA REQUIRED AND SOURCES                                                                       6 

1.7       DEFINITION OF THE TERMS                                                                                6 

CHAPTER TWO 

2.1       EMPIRICAL LITERATURE                                                                                     8 

CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY                     

3.1       ESTIMATION PROCEDURE                                                                                   11 

3.2       REGRESSION ANALYSIS                                                                                       11 

3.3       APPLICATION OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS                                                     12 

3.4       GOALS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS                                                                   13 

3.5       STEPS IN REGRESSION ANALYSIS                                                                     13 

3.6       SOURCES OF ERROR IN REGRESSION ANALYSIS                                          14 

3.7       SCATTER DIAGRAM                                                                                              14 

3.8       STATISTICAL MODEL                                                                                            14 

3.9       MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODEL                                                                        16 

3.10     ESTIMATION OF PARAMETER                                                                            17 

3.11     DECOMPOSITION OF SUM OF SQUARES                                                           17 

3.12     COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION                                                                  21 

3.13     CORRELATION ANALYSIS                                                                                    22 

3.14     HYPOTHESIS TESTING FOR INDIVIDUAL PARAMETER                                     23 

3.15     HYPOTHESIS TESTING FOR SIGNIFICANCE OF REGRESSION 

            PARAMETERS USING F-REGRESSION                                                               25 

3.16     CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR TRUE INDIVIDUAL PARAMETER                        26 

3.17     MODEL SPECIFICATION                                                                                        27 

3.18     METHOD OF EVALUATION                                                                                  28 

3.19     DECISION RULE                                                                                                      28 

CHAPTER FOUR: PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF RESULT 

4.1       PRESENTATION OF RESULTS                                                                              30 

4.2       ANALYSIS OF RESULTS BASED ON ECONOMIC CRITERIA                              31 

4.3       ANALYSIS BASED ON STATISTICAL CRITERIA                                              31 

CHAPTER FIVE 

5.1       SUMMARY                                                                                                                35 

5.2       CONCLUSION                                                                                                           36 

5.3       POLICY RECOMMENDATION                                                                              36 

REFERENCES                                                                                                                       38 

APPENDICES                                                                                                                        40 

Abstract

 

The study examined the impact of money supply and unemployment on economic growth in Nigeria. In the model specified, real gross domestic product (real GDP) is the regress while the unemployment rate, broad money supply and narrow money supply are the regressors. Data was collected from NBS, CBN and ILO statistical bulletin for the period 1985-2017. The statistical techniques used for the analysis is the ordinary least square, with the aid of Eview 8.0 software package. 

          The result indicates that the expansionary credit being supplied in Nigeria within the period under review failed to influence the real gross domestic product, also the result of unemployment rate indicate that the rate of unemployment within the period under review influence the real gross domestic product. The narrow money supply being one of the significant regressor and one of the target variable of monetary policy. It has been identified that the major problem militating against the poor performance of monetary policy instruments in influencing real GDP in Nigeria is time-laging involved which now makes any policy employed by the government to take many variables to achieve its full effect. 

          In effect to this, the effectiveness of influencing real GDP in Nigeria maybe promoted by emphasizing on the unemployment rate instead of on monetary target variables due to the fact the unemployment rate is statistically significant. 

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