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ASSESSING THE ROLE OF MONETARY POLICY ON INFLATION IN NIGERIA

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Table of contents

CHAPTER ONE: Introduction                                                                                           1

1.1       Background to the Study                                                                                            1

1.2       Statement of the Problem                                                                                           4

1.3       Research Questions                                                                                                    4

1.4       Objective of the Study                                                                                                6

1.5       Statement of Hypothesis                                                                                             6

1.6       Sources of Data and Basic Methodology                                                                   6

1.7       Significance of the Study                                                                                           7

1.8       Scope of the Study                                                                                                      8

1.9       Plan of Study                                                                                                              8

CHAPTER TWO: Literature Review and Theoretical Framework                               9

2.1       Conceptual Literature                                                                                                 9

2.1.1    The Concept of Monetary Policy                                                                               9

2.1.2    Monetary Policy Tools and Techniques                                                                     10

2.1.3    Monetary Policy Rate                                                                                                 13

2.1.4    Rate of Inflation                                                                                                         14

2.2       Theoretical Literature                                                                                                 15

2.2.1    Quantity Theory of Money (Sir Irving Fisher, 1911)                                                 15

2.2.2    Demand-Pull Theory of Inflation                                                                               17

2.2.3    Cost Push Theory of Inflation                                                                                    18

2.2.4    Structural Inflation Theory                                                                                         19

2.3       Empirical Literature                                                                                                   21

2.3.1    Monetary Policy and Inflation: Evidence from Developed Countries                    21

2.3.2    Evidence from Emerging and Developing Countries                                                22

2.3.3    Evidence from Nigeria                                                                                               27

2.4       Gaps in Literature                                                                                                       29

CHAPTER THREE: Research Methodology                                                                    31

3.1       Research Design                                                                                                         31

3.2       Source of Data                                                                                                                        31

3.4       Model Specification                                                                                                   32

3.5       A Priori Expectations                                                                                                 33

3.6       Method of Data Analysis                                                                                            33

3.7       Criteria for Decision Making                                                                                     34

CHAPTER FOUR: Data Analysis and Interpretation of Result                                    36

4.1       Trend of Inflation and Monetary Variables in Nigeria from 1996 to 2016               36

4.1.1    Trend of Exchange Rate in Nigeria from 1996 to 2016                                             36

4.1.2    Trend of Broad Money Supply in Nigeria from 1996 to 2016                                    37

4.1.3    Trend of Treasury Bill in Nigeria from 1996 to 2016                                                38

4.1.4    Trend of Monetary Policy Rate in Nigeria from 1996 to 2016                                    39

4.2       Unit Root Test                                                                                                            41

4.3       Effect of Monetary Policy Variables on Inflation in Nigeria                                     46

4.4       Test of Hypothesis                                                                                                      48

4.5       General Discussion                                                                                                     49

CHAPTER FIVE: Summary, Conclusion and Recommendations                                    50

5.1       Summary                                                                                                                    50

5.2       Conclusion                                                                                                                  51

5.3       Recommendations                                                                                                      51

References                                                                                                                             53

Appendix                                                                                                                                56 

Abstract

This research assess the role of monetary policy on inflation in Nigeria. This study focused extensively on the trends inflation and monetary variables in Nigeria from 1996 to 2016.

The use of ordinary least square was adopted to estimate the coefficient using an observation of twenty years. Secondary data was used for the estimation and was source from Central Bank Statistical Bulletin of 2017 volume 

            Results indicates that exchange rate has negative and significant effect on Nigerian inflation rate, treasury bill rate has positive but insignificant effect on Nigerian inflation rate, monetary policy rate impact positively and significantly on Nigerian inflation rate and it was discovered that broad money supply impact positively but insignificantly on Nigerian inflation rate.

            The problems of inflation are undoubtedly surmountable if only the constituted authorities would demonstrate their dexterity in implementations of the necessary policies to curb the menace and since one of the components that are relatively under the control of the monetary authority in Nigeria is the nominal effective exchange rate, efforts must be made to ensure exchange rate stability in order to stem inflationary tendencies.

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