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ASSESSING THE ROLE OF MONETARY POLICY ON INFLATION IN NIGERIA
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Table of contents
CHAPTER ONE: Introduction 1
1.1 Background to the Study 1
1.2 Statement of the Problem 4
1.3 Research Questions 4
1.4 Objective of the Study 6
1.5 Statement of Hypothesis 6
1.6 Sources of Data and Basic Methodology 6
1.7 Significance of the Study 7
1.8 Scope of the Study 8
1.9 Plan of Study 8
CHAPTER TWO: Literature Review and Theoretical Framework 9
2.1 Conceptual Literature 9
2.1.1 The Concept of Monetary Policy 9
2.1.2 Monetary Policy Tools and Techniques 10
2.1.3 Monetary Policy Rate 13
2.1.4 Rate of Inflation 14
2.2 Theoretical Literature 15
2.2.1 Quantity Theory of Money (Sir Irving Fisher, 1911) 15
2.2.2 Demand-Pull Theory of Inflation 17
2.2.3 Cost Push Theory of Inflation 18
2.2.4 Structural Inflation Theory 19
2.3 Empirical Literature 21
2.3.1 Monetary Policy and Inflation: Evidence from Developed Countries 21
2.3.2 Evidence from Emerging and Developing Countries 22
2.3.3 Evidence from Nigeria 27
2.4 Gaps in Literature 29
CHAPTER THREE: Research Methodology 31
3.1 Research Design 31
3.2 Source of Data 31
3.4 Model Specification 32
3.5 A Priori Expectations 33
3.6 Method of Data Analysis 33
3.7 Criteria for Decision Making 34
CHAPTER FOUR: Data Analysis and Interpretation of Result 36
4.1 Trend of Inflation and Monetary Variables in Nigeria from 1996 to 2016 36
4.1.1 Trend of Exchange Rate in Nigeria from 1996 to 2016 36
4.1.2 Trend of Broad Money Supply in Nigeria from 1996 to 2016 37
4.1.3 Trend of Treasury Bill in Nigeria from 1996 to 2016 38
4.1.4 Trend of Monetary Policy Rate in Nigeria from 1996 to 2016 39
4.2 Unit Root Test 41
4.3 Effect of Monetary Policy Variables on Inflation in Nigeria 46
4.4 Test of Hypothesis 48
4.5 General Discussion 49
CHAPTER FIVE: Summary, Conclusion and Recommendations 50
5.1 Summary 50
5.2 Conclusion 51
5.3 Recommendations 51
References 53
Appendix 56
Abstract
This research assess the role of monetary policy on inflation in Nigeria. This study focused extensively on the trends inflation and monetary variables in Nigeria from 1996 to 2016.
The use of ordinary least square was adopted to estimate the coefficient using an observation of twenty years. Secondary data was used for the estimation and was source from Central Bank Statistical Bulletin of 2017 volume
Results indicates that exchange rate has negative and significant effect on Nigerian inflation rate, treasury bill rate has positive but insignificant effect on Nigerian inflation rate, monetary policy rate impact positively and significantly on Nigerian inflation rate and it was discovered that broad money supply impact positively but insignificantly on Nigerian inflation rate.
The problems of inflation are undoubtedly surmountable if only the constituted authorities would demonstrate their dexterity in implementations of the necessary policies to curb the menace and since one of the components that are relatively under the control of the monetary authority in Nigeria is the nominal effective exchange rate, efforts must be made to ensure exchange rate stability in order to stem inflationary tendencies.
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